Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 Rennes: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rennes

C. Wooh 48'

10/13/2022

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv37%

×Draw27%

Rennes35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchRennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.19

Dynamo Kyiv

1.24

Rennes

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

0.73

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.73

Rennes

1.17

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.20

Rennes

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Rennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Rennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

65%

Dynamo Kyiv or Rennes

73%

Draw or Rennes

63%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

16%

Rennes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

71%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

35%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

13%

Rennes 1+ goals

70%

Rennes 2+ goals

33%

Rennes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

52%

Rennes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Rennes away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.73 + Rennes defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rennes attack 1.17 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

37%

level

27%

Rennes scores more

35%

Dynamo Kyiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Bourigeaud

Rennes · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

Benjamin Bourigeaud

44'

Artem Besedin

48'

C. Wooh↳ B. Bourigeaud

53'

Oleksandr Tymchyk

66'

V. Vanat← A. Besedin

66'

V. Kabaev← D. Harmash

66'

K. Sulemana← M. Terrier

67'

K. Vivcharenko← V. Dubinchak

70'

Désiré Doué

70'

O. Andrievskyi← V. Shepelev

73'

A. Gouiri← A. Kalimuendo

73'

F. Tait← D. Doué

77'

O. Karavaev← O. Tymchyk

84'

A. Truffert← B. Bourigeaud

90+5'

Vladyslav Vanat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoRennes

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots15

6Corners9

13Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target3

2Off Target9

2Blocked3

1Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

460Total Passes426

380Accurate Passes353

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0