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Dynamo Kyiv vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
CANC
15:00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
3/17/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv51%
×Draw26%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.54
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.94

Dynamo Kyiv creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.27
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.12

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.80

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
77%
Dynamo Kyiv or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
74%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
49%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
26%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
20%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
61%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
24%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
69%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
51%
level
26%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
23%

Dynamo Kyiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo Kyiv vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Match Preview

Dynamo Kyiv face Metalist 1925 Kharkiv on March 17, 2022 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dynamo Kyiv host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.