Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kolos Kovalivka

C. De Pena 87' (pen)

V. Tsygankov 64' (pen)

A. Vilhjalmsson 69' (pen)

6/22/2020

Premier League · Championship Round - 5Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv57%

×Draw22%

Kolos Kovalivka21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv

1.94

Kolos Kovalivka

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.27

creates per match

1.44

0.75

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

Kolos Kovalivka

1.44

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Kolos Kovalivka

1.61

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less

Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

79%

Dynamo Kyiv or Kolos Kovalivka

78%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka

43%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

33%

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

58%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

30%

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

66%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

30%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

73%

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

57%

level

22%

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

21%

Dynamo Kyiv at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

40'

49'

52'

53'

A. BogdanovMissed penalty

57'

N. Rusyn← C. De Pena

57'

O. Andrievsky← M. Duelund

62'

V. E. Yemets

62'

D. Kostyshyn← A. Vilhjalmsson

63'

K. Petrov

63'

K. Petrov

64'

V. TsygankovPenalty

69'

A. VilhjalmssonPenalty

73'

V. Lysenko← O. Kozhushko

76'

V. Shepelev← A. Kadiri Mohammed

84'

O. Ilyin← D. Antyukh

84'

V. Paramonov← V. Paramonov

86'

E. Efremov

87'

C. De PenaPenalty

90'

V. Buyalskyy← M. Shaparenko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DynamoKolos

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots12

7Corners5

11Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target5

9Off Target7

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3