Dynamo Kyiv 1–1 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Brugge KV

V. Buyalskyi 62'

B. Mechele 67'

2/18/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 32Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv64%

×Draw21%

Club Brugge KV15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.85

Dynamo Kyiv

2.01

Club Brugge KV

0.85

Dynamo Kyiv creates 136% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

0.69

creates per match

0.33

1.38

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.69

Club Brugge KV

0.33

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

Club Brugge KV

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

85%

Dynamo Kyiv or Club Brugge KV

79%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

36%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

40%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

87%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

59%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

32%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

57%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

21%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

81%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + Club Brugge KV defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.01

Club Brugge KV attack 0.33 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

64%

level

21%

Club Brugge KV scores more

15%

Dynamo Kyiv at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Vormer

Club Brugge KV · M

7.7

Match Events

28'

Mykola Shaparenko

32'

Federico Ricca

62'

V. Buyalskyi↳ V. Mykolenko

67'

B. Mechele↳ R. Vormer

69'

Y. Badji← D. Okereke

70'

I. Van der Brempt← N. Dirar

72'

G. Rodrigues← C. de Pena

73'

V. Shepelev← M. Shaparenko

81'

O. Karavaev← T. Kędziora

81'

V. Supryaha← A. Besedin

90'

Vitaliy Mykolenko

90+2'

M. De Cuyper← B. Dost

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoClub

Overview

48%Possession52%

4Total Shots7

3Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots7

1On Target1

2Off Target4

1Blocked2

3Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

454Total Passes481

328Accurate Passes358

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2