Club Brugge KV 1–0 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

H. Vanaken 37' (pen)

8/6/2019

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundJan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Club Brugge KV48%

×Draw24%

Dynamo Kyiv28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.27

Club Brugge KV

1.72

Dynamo Kyiv

1.27

Club Brugge KV creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

0.79

1.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

1.44

Dynamo Kyiv

0.79

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.76

Dynamo Kyiv

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

72%

Club Brugge KV or Dynamo Kyiv

76%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

52%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

26%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

82%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

51%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

25%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

72%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

36%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

63%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.79 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

48%

level

24%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

28%

Club Brugge KV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Simon Deli

37'

H. VanakenPenalty

39'

Emmanuel Dennis

41'

Denys Harmash

44'

Tomasz Kedziora

46'

V. Tsygankov← O. Karavaev

46'

G. Rodrigues← A. Besedin

63'

S. Schrijvers← E. Dennis

64'

C. de Pena← B. Verbič

68'

Gerson Rodrigues

79'

Serhiy Sydorchuk

82'

Tamas Kadar

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ClubDynamo

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots7

4Corners3

21Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots7

5On Target1

4Off Target6

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3