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Dynamo Kyiv vs Chelsea — UEFA Europa League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Chelsea
Chelsea
C. Hudson-Odoi 78'
O. Giroud 59', 33', 5'
Marcos Alonso 45+1'
3/14/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 8th FinalsNSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv16%
×Draw25%
Chelsea59%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
0.70
Chelsea
1.60

Chelsea creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.73
Chelsea
2.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chelsea
0.67

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
41%
Dynamo Kyiv or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
84%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
4%
Chelsea wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
50%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
3%
Chelsea 1+ goals
80%
Chelsea 2+ goals
47%
Chelsea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
22%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Chelsea away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.73 + Chelsea defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Chelsea attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
16%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
59%

Chelsea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
O. GiroudChelseaChelsea · F
9.9

Match Events

5'
O. Giroud↳ R. Loftus-Cheek
33'
O. Giroud↳ Marcos Alonso
45+1'
Marcos Alonso↳ C. Hudson-Odoi
59'
O. Giroud↳ Willian
61'
Vitali Mykolenko
65'
Tchê Tchê← S. Sydorchuk
65'
Jorginho← N. Kanté
69'
Azpilicueta← D. Zappacosta
73'
César Azpilicueta
74'
Pedro← Willian
78'
C. Hudson-Odoi↳ O. Giroud
81'
Y. Smyrnyi← Sidcley
87'
O. Andrievsky← V. Shepelev

Possession

37%Dynamo

Shots

6Dynamo

Pass accuracy

48%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoChelsea
Overview
37%Possession63%
6Total Shots14
3Corners7
13Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots14
2On Target8
2Off Target5
2Blocked1
3Inside Box12
3Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
370Total Passes622
301Accurate Passes554
81%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Dynamo Kyiv 5-0 in UEFA Europa League on March 14, 2019.

Goals: O. Giroud (5', 33', 59'), Marcos Alonso (45+1'), C. Hudson-Odoi (78').

Chelsea controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium in Kyiv.