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Chelsea vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
3/7/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 8th FinalsStamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chelsea72%
×Draw17%
Dynamo Kyiv11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
2.29
Dynamo Kyiv
0.74

Chelsea creates 209% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chelsea
2.80
Dynamo Kyiv
1.29

allows per match

Chelsea
0.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.79

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
89%
Chelsea or Dynamo Kyiv
83%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
28%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
48%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
90%
Chelsea 2+ goals
66%
Chelsea 3+ goals
40%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
52%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
17%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
87%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 2.80 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.29

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.29 + Chelsea defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chelsea scores more
72%
level
17%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
11%

Chelsea at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Dynamo Kyiv

Chelsea beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on March 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.