Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 Barcelona: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona

Ansu Fati 70'

11/2/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv34%

×Draw27%

Barcelona39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchBarcelona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.28

Dynamo Kyiv

1.19

Barcelona

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.62

0.94

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.00

Barcelona

1.62

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.94

Barcelona

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Barcelona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Barcelona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

61%

Dynamo Kyiv or Barcelona

73%

Draw or Barcelona

66%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

14%

Barcelona wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

33%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

12%

Barcelona 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona 2+ goals

37%

Barcelona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

47%

Barcelona (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Barcelona away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.00 + Barcelona defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Barcelona attack 1.62 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

34%

level

27%

Barcelona scores more

39%

Barcelona at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Óscar Mingueza

Barcelona · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

41'

45+1'

46'

50'

64'

Ansu FatiPenalty confirmed

65'

O. Dembélé← Gavi

70'

Ansu Fati

71'

Vitinho← D. Harmash

77'

B. Verbič← C. de Pena

77'

O. Tymchyk← T. Kędziora

79'

R. Araújo← C. Lenglet

81'

B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi

81'

V. Shepelev← M. Shaparenko

87'

Álex Baldé← Ansu Fati

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoBarcelona

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots15

1Corners7

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target3

7Off Target5

1Blocked7

9Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

306Total Passes584

236Accurate Passes521

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1