Barcelona 2–1 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Barcelona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

Piqué 65'

L. Messi 5' (pen)

V. Tsygankov 75'

11/4/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group G - 3Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Barcelona59%

×Draw20%

Dynamo Kyiv21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarcelonaExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.21

Barcelona

2.18

Dynamo Kyiv

1.21

Barcelona creates 80% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

2.36

creates per match

0.77

1.64

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Barcelona

2.36

Dynamo Kyiv

0.77

allows per match

Barcelona

1.64

Dynamo Kyiv

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw

79%

Barcelona or Dynamo Kyiv

80%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

41%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+

37%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals

89%

Barcelona 2+ goals

64%

Barcelona 3+ goals

37%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)

74%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.36 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.77 + Barcelona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barcelona scores more

59%

level

20%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

21%

Barcelona at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

R. Neshcheret

Dynamo Kyiv · G

9.6

Match Events

5'

L. MessiPenalty

60'

O. Dembélé← A. Griezmann

60'

Sergi Roberto← M. Pjanić

65'

Piqué↳ Ansu Fati

70'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

71'

B. Verbič← V. Supryaha

71'

C. de Pena← G. Rodrigues

74'

74'

75'

83'

86'

B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaDynamo

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots8

10Corners8

10Fouls4

Shots

22Total Shots8

14On Target7

5Off Target1

3Blocked0

16Inside Box8

6Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

757Total Passes425

702Accurate Passes372

93%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves12

Discipline

10Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0