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Dynamo Kyiv vs Aris Thessalonikis — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
V. Dubinchak 120+13' (pen)
M. Dyachuk 120+11' (pen)
Benito 120+9' (pen)
S. Diallo 120+5' (pen)
O. Andrievskyi 120+3' (pen)
V. Brazhko 120+1' (pen)
O. Karavaev 85'
N. Voloshyn 45'
Á. Zamora 120+12' (pen)
L. Christodoulopoulos 120+10' (pen)
F. Ferrari 120+8' (pen)
L. Rupp 120+6' (pen)
Fabiano 120+2' (pen)
N. Đurasek 38'
8/17/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundSuperbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv61%
×Draw21%
Aris Thessalonikis18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
2.05
Aris Thessalonikis
1.02

Dynamo Kyiv creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.50
Aris Thessalonikis
0.80

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.25
Aris Thessalonikis
1.60

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Aris Thessalonikis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
82%
Dynamo Kyiv or Aris Thessalonikis
79%
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis
39%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
37%
Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
61%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
33%
Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
64%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
27%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
77%
Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Aris Thessalonikis away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.50 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.80 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
61%
level
21%
Aris Thessalonikis scores more
18%

Dynamo Kyiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
N. Đurasek
45'
N. Voloshyn
59'
J. Menéndez← D. Moberg Karlsson
59'
L. Rupp← N. Đurasek
72'
V. Brazhko← S. Sydorchuk
72'
O. Andrievskyi← M. Shaparenko
72'
O. Karavaev← O. Tymchyk
75'
D. Pavičić← V. Darida
79'
Domagoj Pavičić
82'
L. Christodoulopoulos← Loren Morón
82'
Luis Palma
82'
S. Diallo← N. Voloshyn
82'
R. Matarrita← L. Palma
85'
O. Karavaev
89'
Ronald Matarrita
105+1'
Oleksandr Syrota
105'
K. Parris← A. Yarmolenko
105'
Benito← V. Vanat
105'
Á. Zamora← J. Jules
106'
Domagoj Pavičić
106'
Domagoj Pavičić
110'
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
111'
Moses Odubajo
120+1'
V. BrazhkoPenalty
120+2'
FabianoPenalty
120+3'
O. AndrievskyiPenalty
120+4'
J. MenéndezMissed penalty
120+5'
S. DialloPenalty
120+6'
L. RuppPenalty
120+7'
K. ParrisMissed penalty
120+8'
F. FerrariPenalty
120+9'
BenitoPenalty
120+10'
L. ChristodoulopoulosPenalty
120+11'
M. DyachukPenalty
120+12'
Á. ZamoraPenalty
120+13'
V. DubinchakPenalty
120+14'
M. OdubajoMissed penalty

Shots

12Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoAris
Overview
12Total Shots19
4Corners6
15Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots19
5On Target6
4Off Target10
3Blocked3
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Dynamo Kyiv 2 – 1 Aris Thessalonikis

Dynamo Kyiv beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 17, 2023.

Goals: N. Đurasek (38'), N. Voloshyn (45'), O. Karavaev (85'), V. Brazhko (120+1' pen), Fabiano (120+2' pen), O. Andrievskyi (120+3' pen), S. Diallo (120+5' pen), L. Rupp (120+6' pen), F. Ferrari (120+8' pen), Benito (120+9' pen), L. Christodoulopoulos (120+10' pen), M. Dyachuk (120+11' pen), Á. Zamora (120+12' pen), V. Dubinchak (120+13' pen).

The match was played at Superbet Arena-Giulești in București.