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Aris Thessalonikis vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
L. Palma 69' (pen)
8/10/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aris Thessalonikis73%
×Draw19%
Dynamo Kyiv8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aris Thessalonikis
2.00
Dynamo Kyiv
0.50

Aris Thessalonikis creates 300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aris Thessalonikis
2.20
Dynamo Kyiv
0.20

allows per match

Aris Thessalonikis
0.80
Dynamo Kyiv
1.80

finishing

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris Thessalonikis ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aris Thessalonikis or draw
92%
Aris Thessalonikis or Dynamo Kyiv
81%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
27%

Winning margin

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
47%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
86%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
59%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
32%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
39%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
9%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
90%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris Thessalonikis at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris Thessalonikis attack 2.20 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.20 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Aris Thessalonikis scores more
73%
level
19%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
8%

Aris Thessalonikis at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Aris Thessalonikis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Oleksandr Tymchyk
16'
Mykola Shaparenko
38'
Jean Jules Mvondo
51'
Martín Montoya
53'
Fabiano
58'
L. Rupp← N. Đurasek
58'
J. Menéndez← D. Moberg Karlsson
63'
Jonathan Menéndez
69'
L. PalmaPenalty
76'
R. Matarrita← L. Palma
81'
V. Shepelev← M. Shaparenko
82'
D. Pavičić← V. Darida
82'
V. Brazhko← S. Sydorchuk
82'
N. Voloshyn← V. Kabaev
90+1'
Franco Ferrari

Shots

11Aris

Statistics

ArisDynamo
Overview
11Total Shots5
4Corners3
18Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots5
4On Target2
5Off Target3
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls14
5Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Dynamo Kyiv

Aris Thessalonikis beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 10, 2023.

Goals: L. Palma (69' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Thessaloníki.