Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Ajax: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax

8/28/2018

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsNSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv32%

×Draw26%

Ajax42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchAjax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.47

Dynamo Kyiv

1.24

Ajax

1.47

Ajax creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

0.94

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.00

Ajax

2.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.94

Ajax

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

58%

Dynamo Kyiv or Ajax

74%

Draw or Ajax

68%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

13%

Ajax wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

71%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

35%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

13%

Ajax 1+ goals

77%

Ajax 2+ goals

43%

Ajax 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

43%

Ajax (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Ajax away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.00 + Ajax defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ajax attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

32%

level

26%

Ajax scores more

42%

Ajax at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

D. Boyko

Dynamo Kyiv · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

Tomasz Kędziora

34'

Hakim Ziyech

46'

D. Harmash← V. Shepelev

54'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

64'

M. Shaparenko← S. Sydorchuk

71'

Mykola Shaparenko

79'

C. Eiting← M. Wöber

85'

N. Rusyn← V. Buyalskyy

85'

D. de Wit← D. van de Beek

87'

Dušan Tadić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoAjax

Overview

46%Possession54%

6Total Shots27

5Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots27

2On Target5

2Off Target16

2Blocked6

3Inside Box17

3Outside Box10

Passing

46%Possession54%

405Total Passes469

295Accurate Passes372

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3