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Ajax vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Champions League 2026

Ajax
Ajax
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
D. Tadić 43'
H. Ziyech 35'
D. van de Beek 2'
T. Kędziora 15'
8/22/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsJohan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ajax55%
×Draw23%
Dynamo Kyiv22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
1.83
Dynamo Kyiv
1.07

Ajax creates 71% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv
0.77

allows per match

Ajax
1.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.00

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
78%
Ajax or Dynamo Kyiv
77%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
45%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
31%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
84%
Ajax 2+ goals
54%
Ajax 3+ goals
28%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
66%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
29%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
71%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.67 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.77 + Ajax defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ajax scores more
55%
level
23%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
22%

Ajax at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. TadićAjaxAjax · M
8.4

Match Events

2'
D. van de Beek↳ D. Tadić
15'
T. Kędziora
21'
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
24'
Tomasz Kędziora
35'
H. Ziyech
40'
Denys Garmash
43'
D. Tadić↳ N. Tagliafico
46'
V. Shepelev← D. Harmash
70'
Nicolás Tagliafico
77'
Tchê Tchê← S. Sydorchuk
87'
D. de Wit← D. van de Beek

Possession

53%Ajax

Shots

17Ajax

Pass accuracy

51%Ajax

Statistics

AjaxDynamo
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots10
6Corners8
10Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots10
5On Target4
8Off Target3
4Blocked3
10Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
506Total Passes441
423Accurate Passes356
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Ajax vs Dynamo Kyiv

Ajax beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 22, 2018.

Goals: D. van de Beek (2'), T. Kędziora (15'), H. Ziyech (35'), D. Tadić (43').

Ajax controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.