Dynamo Kyiv U19 3–0 Chornomorets U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chornomorets U19

11/22/2024

U19 League · Round 14NTB Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1982%

×Draw12%

Chornomorets U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Kyiv U19Expected goals in this matchChornomorets U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

0.64

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.87

Chornomorets U19

0.64

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 348% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

3.56

creates per match

0.87

0.40

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

3.56

Chornomorets U19

0.87

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

0.40

Chornomorets U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

Chornomorets U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw

94%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or Chornomorets U19

88%

Draw or Chornomorets U19

18%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

62%

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

94%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

77%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

53%

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

47%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

14%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 3.56, concedes 0.40 · 45 matches

Chornomorets U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 3.56 + Chornomorets U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.87

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.87 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

82%

level

12%

Chornomorets U19 scores more

6%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff