Chornomorets U19 0–2 Dynamo Kyiv U19

Chornomorets U19

FT

0 – 2

Dynamo Kyiv U19

8/19/2023

U19 League · Round 4SK Lyustdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chornomorets U1912%

×Draw19%

Dynamo Kyiv U1969%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chornomorets U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

2.18

Chornomorets U19

0.79

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.18

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 176% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

0.83

creates per match

2.76

1.60

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Chornomorets U19

0.83

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.76

allows per match

Chornomorets U19

1.60

Dynamo Kyiv U19

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets U19 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chornomorets U19 or draw

31%

Chornomorets U19 or Dynamo Kyiv U19

81%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv U19

88%

Winning margin

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

4%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

55%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

19%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

5%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

89%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

64%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Dynamo Kyiv U19 away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.83 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.76 + Chornomorets U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Chornomorets U19 scores more

12%

level

19%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

69%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff