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Dynamo de Douala vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
CANC
00:00
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
4/16/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo de Douala41%
×Draw26%
Aigle Royal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.39
Aigle Royal
1.20

Dynamo de Douala creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
68%
Dynamo de Douala or Aigle Royal
74%
Draw or Aigle Royal
59%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
19%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
75%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
40%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
16%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
34%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
56%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
41%
level
26%
Aigle Royal scores more
32%

Dynamo de Douala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dynamo de Douala host Aigle Royal

April 16, 2022: Dynamo de Douala take on Aigle Royal in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.