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Dynamo Abomey vs Djeffa — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
3 – 2
Djeffa
Djeffa
4/2/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 8Stade Municipal de Goho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dynamo Abomey49%
×Draw29%
Djeffa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.29
Djeffa
0.76

Dynamo Abomey creates 70% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
Djeffa
0.76

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.75
Djeffa
1.19

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
Djeffa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Djeffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
78%
Dynamo Abomey or Djeffa
71%
Draw or Djeffa
51%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
23%
Djeffa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
37%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
14%
Djeffa 1+ goals
53%
Djeffa 2+ goals
18%
Djeffa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
69%
Djeffa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 107 matches

Djeffa away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Djeffa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Djeffa attack 0.76 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
49%
level
29%
Djeffa scores more
22%

Dynamo Abomey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Abomey 3–2 Djeffa

Dynamo Abomey beat Djeffa 3-2 in Championnat National on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Goho in Abomey.