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Djeffa vs Dynamo Abomey — Championnat National 2019

Djeffa
Djeffa
FT
0 – 1
Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
6/1/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 20Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djeffa37%
×Draw33%
Dynamo Abomey30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djeffa
0.97
Dynamo Abomey
0.83

Djeffa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 108 away

creates per match

Djeffa
0.80
Dynamo Abomey
0.91

allows per match

Djeffa
0.75
Dynamo Abomey
1.14

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par
Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Dynamo Abomey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw
70%
Djeffa or Dynamo Abomey
67%
Draw or Dynamo Abomey
63%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+
14%
Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals
62%
Djeffa 2+ goals
25%
Djeffa 3+ goals
7%
Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
56%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
20%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)
56%
Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Djeffa scores more
37%
level
33%
Dynamo Abomey scores more
30%

Djeffa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djeffa vs Dynamo Abomey

Dynamo Abomey beat Djeffa 1-0 in Championnat National on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Charles de Gaulle in Porto-Novo.