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Düren Merzenich vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
FT
2 – 1
Deutz
Deutz
9/13/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Düren Merzenich72%
×Draw15%
Deutz13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Düren Merzenich
2.81
Deutz
1.12

Düren Merzenich creates 151% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Düren Merzenich
2.94
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

Düren Merzenich
1.12
Deutz
2.68

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw
87%
Düren Merzenich or Deutz
85%
Draw or Deutz
28%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
51%
Deutz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
94%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
76%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
52%
Deutz 1+ goals
67%
Deutz 2+ goals
31%
Deutz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
85%
Deutz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.81

Deutz attack 1.11 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more
72%
level
15%
Deutz scores more
13%

Düren Merzenich at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Düren Merzenich vs Deutz

Düren Merzenich beat Deutz 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Westkampfbahn in Düren.