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Deutz vs Düren Merzenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
CANC
14:30
Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
3/21/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz19%
×Draw19%
Düren Merzenich62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.22
Düren Merzenich
2.35

Düren Merzenich creates 93% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
Düren Merzenich
2.03

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
Düren Merzenich
1.33

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Düren Merzenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
38%
Deutz or Düren Merzenich
81%
Draw or Düren Merzenich
81%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
7%
Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
70%
Deutz 2+ goals
34%
Deutz 3+ goals
12%
Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
90%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
68%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
23%
Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Düren Merzenich away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Düren Merzenich attack 2.03 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deutz scores more
19%
level
19%
Düren Merzenich scores more
62%

Düren Merzenich at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deutz host Düren Merzenich

March 21, 2021: Deutz take on Düren Merzenich in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deutz host Düren Merzenich at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.