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Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
E. Bardeli 64'
A. Sekongo 7'
H. Saivet 29'
F. Diedhiou 16' (pen)
8/9/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque38%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.15
Clermont Foot
1.05

Dunkerque creates 10% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
67%
Dunkerque or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
62%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
16%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
68%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
32%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
65%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
28%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
54%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dunkerque scores more
38%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
33%

Dunkerque at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
E. BardeliDunkerqueDunkerque · M
8.9

Match Events

7'
A. Sekongo↳ E. Bardeli
16'
F. DiedhiouPenalty
29'
H. Saivet↳ F. Diedhiou
43'
Kay Tejan
49'
Maximiliano Caufriez
64'
E. Bardeli↳ G. Yassine
69'
Aristide Zossou
72'
J. Gastien← A. Hunou
73'
M. Douane← K. Bamba
77'
M. Essimi← A. Zossou
82'
L. Socka Bongue← O. Diop
83'
T. Massock← K. Tejan
89'
A. Said← F. Diedhiou
90'
K. Boto← H. Keita

Possession

58%Dunkerque

Shots

15Dunkerque

Pass accuracy

52%Dunkerque

Statistics

DunkerqueClermont
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots6
9Corners2
17Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots6
4On Target3
6Off Target2
5Blocked1
12Inside Box1
3Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
470Total Passes360
401Accurate Passes288
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Ligue 2: Dunkerque 2–2 Clermont Foot

Dunkerque and Clermont Foot drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Sekongo (7'), F. Diedhiou (16' pen), H. Saivet (29'), E. Bardeli (64').

Dunkerque controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Tribut in Dunkerque.