Clermont Foot 0–1 Dunkerque: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dunkerque

E. Bardeli 84'

9/13/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Clermont Foot45%

×Draw27%

Dunkerque28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.03

Clermont Foot

1.40

Dunkerque

1.03

Clermont Foot creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

1.31

creates per match

1.03

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

72%

Clermont Foot or Dunkerque

73%

Draw or Dunkerque

55%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

22%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

75%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

41%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

17%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

64%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

28%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

62%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

45%

level

27%

Dunkerque scores more

28%

Clermont Foot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Bardeli

Dunkerque · M

7.6

Match Events

44'

Baïla Diallo

61'

K. Tejan← Y. Bammou

61'

U. Raghouber← Diogo Queirós

63'

M. Bassouamina← M. Douane

63'

O. Diop← A. Maurer

66'

Alec Georgen

74'

Y. Magnin← H. Keïta

75'

Y. Diaby← M. Baaloudj

75'

Y. Armougom← B. Diallo

76'

Ugo Raghouber

78'

N. Nsingi← M. Rivera

78'

Opa Sanganté← N. Fernandez-Veliz

82'

Yoël Armougom

83'

N. Skyttä← Y. Sekongo

84'

E. Bardeli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontDunkerque

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots8

3Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots8

2On Target4

2Off Target2

3Blocked2

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

433Total Passes359

348Accurate Passes279

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

8Offsides0