Dunkerque 0–1 Angers: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Angers

H. Abdelli 90+5' (pen)

8/26/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dunkerque34%

×Draw28%

Angers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchAngers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.22

Dunkerque

1.15

Angers

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

1.13

creates per match

1.32

1.11

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Angers

1.32

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Angers

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Angers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

62%

Dunkerque or Angers

72%

Draw or Angers

66%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

14%

Angers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

68%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

32%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

11%

Angers 1+ goals

70%

Angers 2+ goals

34%

Angers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

48%

Angers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Angers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Angers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Angers attack 1.32 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dunkerque scores more

34%

level

28%

Angers scores more

38%

Angers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Y. Fofana

Angers · G

9.3

Match Events

31'

Rayan Ghrieb

40'

Ángel Orelien

46'

O. Camara← L. Rao-Lisoa

57'

J. Bahoya← A. Hunou

57'

I. Niane← J. Kalumba

62'

A. Ipiélé← Á. Orelién

65'

Jean-Mattéo Bahoya

72'

J. Anziani← R. Boissier

77'

Ibrahima Niane

81'

M. Guel← T. Keita

81'

E. Bardeli← R. Ghrieb

83'

N. Fatar← P. Capelle

90+4'

Demba Thiam

90+5'

H. AbdelliPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueAngers

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots7

3Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

9On Target3

3Off Target3

1Blocked1

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

413Total Passes570

334Accurate Passes495

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1