Angers 0–0 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Angers

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunkerque

5/17/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Raymond Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Angers51%

×Draw26%

Dunkerque24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngersExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Angers

1.54

Dunkerque

0.96

Angers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

1.61

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Angers

1.61

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Angers

0.89

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angers+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Angers or draw

76%

Angers or Dunkerque

74%

Draw or Dunkerque

49%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+

26%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals

79%

Angers 2+ goals

45%

Angers 3+ goals

20%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

62%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

25%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)

68%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.61 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Angers defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Angers scores more

51%

level

26%

Dunkerque scores more

24%

Angers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

F. Hanin

Angers · D

7.9

Match Events

58'

A. Laaziri← A. Maurer

61'

I. Niane← J. Kalumba

61'

L. Rao-Lisoa← E. Lepaul

70'

T. Keita← E. Bardeli

70'

F. Mughe← G. Yassine

72'

Mohamed Koné

90+1'

Y. Belkhdim← P. Capelle

90'

E. Bah← G. Courtet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AngersDunkerque

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots4

12Corners1

11Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots4

3On Target2

7Off Target1

2Blocked1

8Inside Box0

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

491Total Passes429

407Accurate Passes346

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0