Dunfermline 0–2 Dundee: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dundee

C. Main 40'

J. Portales 33'

7/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3KDM Group East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunfermline12%

×Draw26%

Dundee62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

1.50

Dunfermline

0.50

Dundee

1.50

Dundee creates 200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.33

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Dunfermline

0.33

Dundee

1.67

allows per match

Dunfermline

1.33

Dundee

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–120%

0–215%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

38%

Dunfermline or Dundee

74%

Draw or Dundee

88%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

3%

Dundee wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

39%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

9%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

1%

Dundee 1+ goals

78%

Dundee 2+ goals

44%

Dundee 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

16%

Dundee (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 0.33 + Dundee defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Dundee attack 1.67 + Dunfermline defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dunfermline scores more

12%

level

26%

Dundee scores more

62%

Dundee at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J. Portales

40'

C. Main

46'

C. Wighton← T. Sutherland

46'

J. Chalmers← K. Ritchie-Hosler

46'

K. Benedictus← C. Hamilton

46'

D. Mehmet← Trialist F

62'

D. Wotherspoon← A. Tod

66'

S. Tiffoney← L. Cameron

66'

E. Ingram← F. Robertson

66'

S. Palmer-Houlden← S. Palmer-Houlden

66'

C. Main← C. Kerr

76'

R. Astley← R. Astley

84'

C. Reilly← Z. Rudden

84'

S. Fisher← F. Rowe

85'

A. Comrie← L. Hoggan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff