Dundee 3–3 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Dundee

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dunfermline

L. Fontaine 70'

O. Sow 50'

C. Adam 35'

D. McManus 90+3', 82' (pen)

P. Watson 78'

12/19/2020

League #180 · Round 8Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dundee53%

×Draw23%

Dunfermline24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.15

Dundee

1.82

Dunfermline

1.15

Dundee creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

2.43

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Dundee

2.43

Dunfermline

1.00

allows per match

Dundee

1.29

Dunfermline

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

76%

Dundee or Dunfermline

77%

Draw or Dunfermline

47%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

30%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

84%

Dundee 2+ goals

54%

Dundee 3+ goals

27%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

68%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

32%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

69%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.43 + Dunfermline defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dunfermline attack 1.00 + Dundee defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dundee scores more

53%

level

23%

Dunfermline scores more

24%

Dundee at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

C. Adam↳ L. Fontaine

46'

I. Wilson← K. Mcinroy

50'

O. Sow↳ C. Adam

54'

66'

69'

70'

72'

75'

78'

L. McCann← S. Whittaker

78'

P. Watson↳ R. Dow

82'

D. McManusPenalty

87'

J. Forster← D. Mullen

90+3'

D. McManus

Dundee

Dunfermline

1

Williams

16

▼

Whittaker

44

⚽

5

22

3

11

A

Dow

23

▼

Thomas

8

Turner

24

▼

Mcinroy

10

⚽2

McManus

1

Hamilton

4

⚽A

16

14

3

23

26

⚽A

▼

Adam

10

McGowan

8

Byrne

21

⚽

▼

Sow

9

▼

Mullen

Manager: J. McPake

66'▲J. Afolabi←▼O. Sow

72'▲M. Anderson←▼C. Adam

87'▲J. Forster←▼D. Mullen

Dundee substitutes

17Afolabi24Anderson5Forster2Kerr12Ferrie11McDaid19Robertson

Manager: S. Crawford

46'▲I. Wilson←▼K. Mcinroy

54'▲K. O'Hara←▼D. Thomas

78'▲L. McCann←▼S. Whittaker

Dunfermline substitutes

15Wilson7O'Hara14McCann17Bowman27Berry20Gill19Fenton

League #180: Dundee 3–3 Dunfermline

Dundee and Dunfermline drew 3-3 in League #180 on December 19, 2020.

Goals: C. Adam (35'), O. Sow (50'), L. Fontaine (70'), P. Watson (78'), D. McManus (82' pen, 90+3').

The match was played at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.

Dundee vs Dunfermline — League #180 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #180: Dundee 3–3 Dunfermline