Dunfermline 1–2 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cove Rangers

T. Sutherland 88'

M. Gaffney 84'

M. Doyle 58'

7/27/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 8KDM Group East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunfermline51%

×Draw22%

Cove Rangers27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.42

Dunfermline

2.00

Cove Rangers

1.42

Dunfermline creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dunfermline

3.00

Cove Rangers

2.00

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.83

Cove Rangers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

73%

Dunfermline or Cove Rangers

78%

Draw or Cove Rangers

49%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

29%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

86%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

59%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

32%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

76%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

41%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

65%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 3.00 + Cove Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cove Rangers attack 2.00 + Dunfermline defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dunfermline scores more

51%

level

22%

Cove Rangers scores more

27%

Dunfermline at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Breen← S. Fisher

54'

D. Glass

58'

M. Doyle

61'

E. Otoo← M. OHalloran

61'

T. Sutherland← C. Wighton

61'

L. McCann← J. Chalmers

65'

A. Tod← D. Wotherspoon

68'

L. Strachan← R. Harrington

82'

M. Gallagher← B. Yule

84'

M. Gaffney↳ D. Glass

88'

T. Sutherland↳ L. McCann

90'

L. McCann

Dunfermline

Cove

21

Demus

3

⚽

Doyle

7

▼

15

2

6

8

▼

Yule

4

Scully

10

A

Glass

12

Ochmanski

20

⚽

1

4

2

15

▼

Fisher

3

Ngwenya

19

▼

Wotherspo

8

▼

Chalmers

5

Hamilton

7

Ritchie-H

23

▼

O'Hallora

9

▼

Wighton

Manager: J. McPake

30'▲R. Breen←▼S. Fisher

61'▲E. Otoo←▼M. OHalloran

61'▲T. Sutherland←▼C. Wighton

61'▲L. McCann←▼J. Chalmers

65'▲A. Tod←▼D. Wotherspoon

Dunfermline substitutes

12Breen6Otoo24Sutherland11McCann26Tod25Young27Hoggan28McLeod

Manager: P. Hartley

68'▲L. Strachan←▼R. Harrington

82'▲M. Gallagher←▼B. Yule

Cove Rangers substitutes

14Strachan22Gallagher19Donaldson25Milnes1Suman