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Cove Rangers vs Dunfermline — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Unknown 67'
L. McCann 90'
7/2/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cove Rangers24%
×Draw26%
Dunfermline50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
0.99
Dunfermline
1.55

Dunfermline creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
1.30
Dunfermline
1.50

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.60
Dunfermline
0.67

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
50%
Cove Rangers or Dunfermline
74%
Draw or Dunfermline
76%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
9%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
63%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
79%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
46%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
32%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.30 + Dunfermline defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Dunfermline attack 1.50 + Cove Rangers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
24%
level
26%
Dunfermline scores more
50%

Dunfermline at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
90'
L. McCann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Dunfermline

Cove Rangers and Dunfermline drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 2, 2024.

Goals: ? (67'), L. McCann (90').

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.