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Dundonald Bluebell vs Auchinleck Talbot — FA Cup 2019

Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
FT
2 – 2
Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
8/10/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell29%
×Draw19%
Auchinleck Talbot52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundonald Bluebell
1.82
Auchinleck Talbot
2.46

Auchinleck Talbot creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.57
Auchinleck Talbot
2.92

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.08

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par
Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw
48%
Dundonald Bluebell or Auchinleck Talbot
81%
Draw or Auchinleck Talbot
71%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
14%
Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
84%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
54%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
27%
Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
91%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
70%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
36%
Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.82

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more
29%
level
19%
Auchinleck Talbot scores more
52%

Auchinleck Talbot at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundonald Bluebell vs Auchinleck Talbot

Dundonald Bluebell and Auchinleck Talbot drew 2-2 in FA Cup on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Moorside Park in Cardenden.