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Auchinleck Talbot vs Dundonald Bluebell — FA Cup 2019

Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
FT
6 – 1
Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
8/17/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary Round ReplaysBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot76%
×Draw13%
Dundonald Bluebell11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auchinleck Talbot
3.30
Dundonald Bluebell
1.21

Auchinleck Talbot creates 173% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot
2.27
Dundonald Bluebell
1.33

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot
1.09
Dundonald Bluebell
4.33

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par
Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Dundonald Bluebell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw
89%
Auchinleck Talbot or Dundonald Bluebell
87%
Draw or Dundonald Bluebell
24%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
58%
Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
96%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
83%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
62%
Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
70%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
34%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
88%
Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Dundonald Bluebell away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.30

Dundonald Bluebell attack 1.33 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more
76%
level
13%
Dundonald Bluebell scores more
11%

Auchinleck Talbot at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Dundonald Bluebell

Auchinleck Talbot beat Dundonald Bluebell 6-1 in FA Cup on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Auchinleck.