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Dundee vs Brora Rangers — League Cup 2018

Dundee
Dundee
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
7/13/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dundee85%
×Draw11%
Brora Rangers5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
2.90
Brora Rangers
0.54

Dundee creates 437% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dundee
2.80
Brora Rangers
0.33

allows per match

Dundee
0.75
Brora Rangers
3.00

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
95%
Dundee or Brora Rangers
89%
Draw or Brora Rangers
15%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
65%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
94%
Dundee 2+ goals
78%
Dundee 3+ goals
54%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
42%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
10%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
95%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.80 + Brora Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

Brora Rangers attack 0.33 + Dundee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Dundee scores more
85%
level
11%
Brora Rangers scores more
5%

Dundee at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundee vs Brora Rangers

Dundee beat Brora Rangers 4-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.