Brora Rangers 0–2 Dundee: Result & Stats

Brora Rangers

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dundee

10/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Dudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brora Rangers6%

×Draw17%

Dundee77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brora RangersExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.37

2.05

Brora Rangers

0.37

Dundee

2.05

Dundee creates 454% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

0.00

creates per match

2.11

2.00

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Brora Rangers

0.00

Dundee

2.11

allows per match

Brora Rangers

2.00

Dundee

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Dundee →

0–09%

0–118%

0–219%

0–313%

0–47%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw

23%

Brora Rangers or Dundee

83%

Draw or Dundee

94%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

Dundee wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

31%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

Dundee 1+ goals

87%

Dundee 2+ goals

61%

Dundee 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

Dundee (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Dundee away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 0.00 + Dundee defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.37

Dundee attack 2.11 + Brora Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Brora Rangers scores more

level

17%

Dundee scores more

77%

Dundee at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff