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Dundee Utd vs Ayr Utd — League #180 2026

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
12/9/2023League #180League #180 · Round 15Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dundee Utd56%
×Draw22%
Ayr Utd22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
2.01
Ayr Utd
1.18

Dundee Utd creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
2.64
Ayr Utd
1.53

allows per match

Dundee Utd
0.82
Ayr Utd
1.38

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
78%
Dundee Utd or Ayr Utd
78%
Draw or Ayr Utd
44%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
33%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
87%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
59%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
32%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
69%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
33%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
72%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 2.64 + Ayr Utd defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

Ayr Utd attack 1.53 + Dundee Utd defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
56%
level
22%
Ayr Utd scores more
22%

Dundee Utd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #180: Dundee Utd 1–0 Ayr Utd

Dundee Utd beat Ayr Utd 1-0 in League #180 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.