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Ayr Utd vs Dundee Utd — League #180 2026

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
2/3/2024League #180League #180 · Round 23Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ayr Utd30%
×Draw26%
Dundee Utd44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
1.13
Dundee Utd
1.44

Dundee Utd creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
1.53
Dundee Utd
1.64

allows per match

Ayr Utd
1.23
Dundee Utd
0.73

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
56%
Ayr Utd or Dundee Utd
74%
Draw or Dundee Utd
70%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
12%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
68%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
31%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
11%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
76%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
42%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
40%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 1.53 + Dundee Utd defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dundee Utd attack 1.64 + Ayr Utd defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
30%
level
26%
Dundee Utd scores more
44%

Dundee Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #180: Ayr Utd 1–2 Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Ayr Utd 2-1 in League #180 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.