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Dundalk vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Dundalk
Dundalk
Preview
18:45
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
9/18/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 32Oriel Park
Big match
48%
Dundalk
model favours
48%23%29%

Dundalk have scored in 10 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dundalk48%
×Draw23%
Shelbourne29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundalk
1.81
Shelbourne
1.35

Dundalk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dundalk
2.18
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

Dundalk+0.22scores more
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw
71%
Dundalk or Shelbourne
77%
Draw or Shelbourne
52%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+
26%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals
84%
Dundalk 2+ goals
54%
Dundalk 3+ goals
27%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
74%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
39%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)
63%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.18 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Dundalk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundalk scores more
48%
level
23%
Shelbourne scores more
29%

Dundalk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Shelbourne have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Dundalk win just 27% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)
  • Dundalk fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.8 expected)
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Dundalk
Attack-heavy
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
48%Possession56%
66%Pass accuracyBiggest gap80%
13.8Shots14.5
1.83xG1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DundalkShelbourne

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Dundalk
2
Draws
7
Shelbourne
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–21–23–21–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Dundalk
DWLLL
Shelbourne
WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dundalk vs Shelbourne — Match Preview

Dundalk face Shelbourne on September 18, 2026 in this Premier Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dundalk host Shelbourne at Oriel Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.