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Dundalk vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Dundalk
Dundalk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
5/3/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 13Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dundalk48%
×Draw23%
Shelbourne29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundalk
1.81
Shelbourne
1.35

Dundalk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dundalk
2.18
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

Dundalk+0.22scores more
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw
71%
Dundalk or Shelbourne
77%
Draw or Shelbourne
52%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+
26%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals
84%
Dundalk 2+ goals
54%
Dundalk 3+ goals
27%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
74%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
39%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)
63%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.18 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Dundalk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundalk scores more
48%
level
23%
Shelbourne scores more
29%

Dundalk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. KearnsShelbourneShelbourne · G
7.9

Match Events

25'
Koen Oostenbrink
26'
Daryl Horgan
61'
S. Boyd← J. Martin
61'
S. Farrell← M. Smith
75'
E. Caffrey← L. Burt
78'
S. Durrant← J. Mountney
79'
Mark Coyle
82'
Zak Bradshaw
83'
D. Williams← J. Lunney
84'
H. Muller← K. Oostenbrink
90+3'
E. Kenny← J. Gullan
90+3'
R. O'Kane← S. High

Possession

Dundalk: 49Shelbourne: 5149%Dundalk

Shots

Dundalk: 11Shelbourne: 311Dundalk

Pass accuracy

Dundalk: 76Shelbourne: 7949%Dundalk

Statistics

DundalkShelbourne
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots3
5Corners3
12Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots3
5On Target1
5Off Target2
1Blocked0
4Inside Box1
7Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
420Total Passes455
321Accurate Passes360
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Premier Division: Dundalk 0–0 Shelbourne

Dundalk and Shelbourne drew 0-0 in Premier Division on May 3, 2024.

Shelbourne controlled possession (51%) and registered 3 shots to 11.

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.