Dundalk 2–1 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

J. Martin 85'

D. Kelly 64'

S. Farrell 81' (pen)

4/22/2022

Premier Division · Round 12Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dundalk48%

×Draw23%

Shelbourne29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.35

Dundalk

1.81

Shelbourne

1.35

Dundalk creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Dundalk

2.18

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

Dundalk

1.32

Shelbourne

1.45

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Dundalk+0.22scores more

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

71%

Dundalk or Shelbourne

77%

Draw or Shelbourne

52%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

26%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

84%

Dundalk 2+ goals

54%

Dundalk 3+ goals

27%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

74%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

39%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

63%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.18 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Dundalk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dundalk scores more

48%

level

23%

Shelbourne scores more

29%

Dundalk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

40'

41'

45+1'

45+1'

45+1'

D. Duff

45+1'

D. Duff

46'

54'

55'

56'

56'

64'

68'

70'

S. Boyd← C. Kane

74'

S. Bone← P. Doyle

77'

J. McEneff← A. Dervin

81'

S. FarrellPenalty

84'

J. Martin← L. Macari

84'

D. McMillan← P. Hoban

85'

J. Martin

Dundalk

Shelbourne

1

23

5

4

3

▼

Kane

2

Wilson

8

Coyle

16

▼

Dervin

10

Moylan

14

▼

Carr

17

⚽

1

4

5

15

2

▼

Macari

10

▼

Sloggett

21

▼

Doyle

20

Adams

16

Bradley

9

▼

Hoban

7

⚽

Kelly

Manager: S. O'Donnell

55'▲K. Ward←▼G. Sloggett

74'▲S. Bone←▼P. Doyle

84'▲J. Martin←▼L. Macari

84'▲D. McMillan←▼P. Hoban

Dundalk substitutes

17Ward6Bone11Martin29McMillan14Cherrie23Mountney24Animasahun25Hanratty28O'Kane

Manager: D. Duff

46'▲K. Ledwidge←▼D. Carr

70'▲S. Boyd←▼C. Kane

77'▲J. McEneff←▼A. Dervin

Shelbourne substitutes

32Ledwidge9Boyd22McEneff12Hakiki15Thomas25Webb19Anaebonam21Molloy6Lunney

Match Recap: Dundalk vs Shelbourne

Dundalk beat Shelbourne 2-1 in Premier Division on April 22, 2022.

Goals: D. Kelly (64'), S. Farrell (81' pen), J. Martin (85').

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.

Dundalk vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dundalk vs Shelbourne