Dundalk 5–0 Cork City: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Cork City

J. Martin 87'

S. Durrant 55'

C. Coleman 33' (OG)

D. Horgan 27'

H. Muller 18'

9/25/2023

Premier Division · Round 30Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dundalk60%

×Draw23%

Cork City17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.87

Dundalk

1.83

Cork City

0.87

Dundalk creates 110% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 60 away

1.60

creates per match

0.73

1.01

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Dundalk

1.60

Cork City

0.73

allows per match

Dundalk

1.01

Cork City

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

83%

Dundalk or Cork City

77%

Draw or Cork City

40%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

35%

Cork City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

84%

Dundalk 2+ goals

54%

Dundalk 3+ goals

28%

Cork City 1+ goals

58%

Cork City 2+ goals

22%

Cork City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

77%

Cork City (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.01 · 109 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 1.60 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cork City attack 0.73 + Dundalk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dundalk scores more

60%

level

23%

Cork City scores more

17%

Dundalk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Horgan

Dundalk · M

9.3

Match Events

18'

H. Muller↳ D. Horgan

25'

Paul Doyle

27'

D. Horgan

33'

C. ColemanOwn goal

45'

A. Lewis← P. Doyle

46'

C. Murphy← J. OBrien-Whitmarsh

46'

G. Walker← B. Worman

50'

Conor Drinan

55'

S. Durrant↳ P. Hoban

56'

J. Honohan← C. Drinan

56'

J. Kabia← M. Dijksteel

62'

62'

66'

71'

76'

77'

S. Mullen← D. Brownlie

77'

D. Leahy← J. Yli-Kokko

81'

O. Crowe← A. Kravchuk

84'

Senan Mullen

87'

J. Martin↳ A. Davies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundalkCork

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

5Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target2

7Off Target7

3Blocked1

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

422Total Passes314

318Accurate Passes208

75%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Premier Division: Dundalk 5–0 Cork City

Dundalk beat Cork City 5-0 in Premier Division on September 25, 2023.

Goals: H. Muller (18'), D. Horgan (27'), C. Coleman (33' o.g.), S. Durrant (55'), J. Martin (87').

Dundalk controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.

Dundalk vs Cork City — Premier Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Dundalk 5–0 Cork City