Cork City 1–0 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dundalk

C. Murphy 38'

4/10/2023

Premier Division · Round 9Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City33%

×Draw28%

Dundalk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Cork City

1.09

Dundalk

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

0.97

creates per match

1.20

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cork City

0.97

Dundalk

1.20

allows per match

Cork City

1.18

Dundalk

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

62%

Cork City or Dundalk

72%

Draw or Dundalk

67%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

13%

Dundalk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

66%

Cork City 2+ goals

30%

Cork City 3+ goals

10%

Dundalk 1+ goals

70%

Dundalk 2+ goals

33%

Dundalk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

47%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 0.97 + Dundalk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dundalk attack 1.20 + Cork City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cork City scores more

33%

level

28%

Dundalk scores more

38%

Dundalk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

C. Murphy↳ R. Keating

45'

J. Yli-Kokko

46'

J. Martin← D. Kelly

57'

K. Ward← A. Lewis

57'

R. O'Kane← J. Yli-Kokko

68'

A. Davies

68'

B. Coffey← J. OBrien-Whitmarsh

71'

D. Crowley← C. Bargary

72'

P. Hoban← R. McCourt

77'

J. Martin

78'

E. Varian← C. Murphy

Cork

Dundalk

1

Shepperd

4

Boyle

18

▼

2

16

10

77

6

▼

Lewis

27

Malley

20

▼

Yli-Kokko

7

▼

20

6

4

27

28

18

8

30

▼

O'Brien-W

9

A

Keating

24

⚽

▼

Murphy

11

▼

Bargary

Manager: C. Healy

68'▲B. Coffey←▼J. OBrien-Whitmarsh

71'▲D. Crowley←▼C. Bargary

78'▲E. Varian←▼C. Murphy

Cork City substitutes

10Coffey17Crowley21Varian16Krezic22O'Donovan26Mannix7Owolabi14Winbo

Manager: S. O'Donnell

46'▲J. Martin←▼D. Kelly

57'▲K. Ward←▼A. Lewis

57'▲R. O'Kane←▼J. Yli-Kokko

72'▲P. Hoban←▼R. McCourt

Dundalk substitutes

11Martin17Ward28O'Kane9Hoban22Williams30Byrne25Mayo3Leahy13Cherrie