Dundalk 1–3 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians

A. Dervin 34'

Z. Myers 90'

D. James-Taylor 68' (pen)

R. Tierney 50'

5/8/2026

Premier Division · Round 16Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dundalk43%

×Draw23%

Bohemians33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.48

Dundalk

1.71

Bohemians

1.48

Dundalk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

1.63

1.32

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Dundalk

2.18

Bohemians

1.63

allows per match

Dundalk

1.32

Bohemians

1.23

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.77scores more than expected

finishing

Dundalk+0.22scores more

Bohemians+0.77scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

67%

Dundalk or Bohemians

77%

Draw or Bohemians

57%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

23%

Bohemians wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

82%

Dundalk 2+ goals

51%

Dundalk 3+ goals

24%

Bohemians 1+ goals

77%

Bohemians 2+ goals

43%

Bohemians 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

56%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.18 + Bohemians defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bohemians attack 1.63 + Dundalk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dundalk scores more

43%

level

23%

Bohemians scores more

33%

Dundalk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Tierney

Bohemians · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

34'

36'

46'

46'

46'

S. Diallo← A. McDonnell

46'

D. James-Taylor← H. Vaughan

50'

R. Tierney↳ D. James-Taylor

57'

59'

61'

63'

67'

68'

D. James-TaylorPenalty

69'

D. McDaid← R. Teahan

69'

H. Warren← K. Buckley

71'

78'

83'

83'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundalkBohemians

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots8

2Corners1

19Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target5

3Off Target2

0Blocked1

2Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

421Total Passes462

291Accurate Passes337

69%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2