Bohemians 1–1 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Bohemians

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dundalk

R. Tierney 19'

D. Horgan 27'

7/26/2024

Premier Division · Round 25Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bohemians43%

×Draw26%

Dundalk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BohemiansExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Bohemians

1.42

Dundalk

1.17

Bohemians creates 21% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 109 away

1.62

creates per match

1.20

1.14

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Bohemians

1.62

Dundalk

1.20

allows per match

Bohemians

1.14

Dundalk

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bohemians+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw

69%

Bohemians or Dundalk

74%

Draw or Dundalk

57%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+

20%

Dundalk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals

76%

Bohemians 2+ goals

41%

Bohemians 3+ goals

17%

Dundalk 1+ goals

69%

Dundalk 2+ goals

33%

Dundalk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)

58%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.62 + Dundalk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dundalk attack 1.20 + Bohemians defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bohemians scores more

43%

level

26%

Dundalk scores more

31%

Bohemians at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Rooney

Bohemians · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

Mayowa Animasahun

19'

R. Tierney↳ D. Rooney

25'

27'

45+1'

57'

66'

J. Clarke← A. McDonnell

66'

J. Akintunde← A. Greive

71'

75'

79'

79'

83'

83'

90+6'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BohemiansDundalk

Overview

73%Possession27%

19Total Shots10

10Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target2

5Off Target5

7Blocked3

13Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

73%Possession27%

576Total Passes221

481Accurate Passes129

84%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1