Dunbar Rovers 1–4 Bulls Academy: Result & Stats

Dunbar Rovers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Bulls Academy

6/8/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 19Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers29%

×Draw23%

Bulls Academy48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunbar RoversExpected goals in this matchBulls Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.86

Dunbar Rovers

1.40

Bulls Academy

1.86

Bulls Academy creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

1.30

creates per match

1.70

2.03

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers

1.30

Bulls Academy

1.70

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers

2.03

Bulls Academy

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Bulls Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw

52%

Dunbar Rovers or Bulls Academy

77%

Draw or Bulls Academy

71%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Bulls Academy wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals

75%

Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals

41%

Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Bulls Academy 1+ goals

84%

Bulls Academy 2+ goals

55%

Bulls Academy 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)

38%

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more

29%

level

23%

Bulls Academy scores more

48%

Bulls Academy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff