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Bulls Academy vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
1 – 0
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
3/2/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bulls Academy62%
×Draw19%
Dunbar Rovers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
2.30
Dunbar Rovers
1.19

Bulls Academy creates 93% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
81%
Bulls Academy or Dunbar Rovers
81%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
38%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
40%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
90%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
67%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
40%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
33%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
77%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.30

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
62%
level
19%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
19%

Bulls Academy at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 1–0 Dunbar Rovers

Bulls Academy beat Dunbar Rovers 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.