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Dunbar Rovers vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
FT
1 – 1
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
3/23/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers31%
×Draw23%
Bankstown City Lions46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar Rovers
1.42
Bankstown City Lions
1.76

Bankstown City Lions creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers
1.30
Bankstown City Lions
1.49

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers
2.03
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw
54%
Dunbar Rovers or Bankstown City Lions
77%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
69%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
14%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
83%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
52%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
41%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more
31%
level
23%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
46%

Bankstown City Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbar Rovers vs Bankstown City Lions

Dunbar Rovers and Bankstown City Lions drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Fraser Park in Marrickville.