Bankstown City Lions 1–0 Dunbar Rovers

Bankstown City Lions

FT

1 – 0

Dunbar Rovers

8/13/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 28Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bankstown City Lions58%

×Draw22%

Dunbar Rovers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bankstown City LionsExpected goals in this matchDunbar Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.09

Bankstown City Lions

1.99

Dunbar Rovers

1.09

Bankstown City Lions creates 83% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

0.93

1.25

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.60

Dunbar Rovers

0.93

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.25

Dunbar Rovers

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Dunbar Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw

80%

Bankstown City Lions or Dunbar Rovers

78%

Draw or Dunbar Rovers

42%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+

35%

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals

86%

Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals

59%

Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals

32%

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals

30%

Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)

74%

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more

58%

level

22%

Dunbar Rovers scores more

20%

Bankstown City Lions at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff