Dunav Stari Banovci 1–2 Borac Sakule

Dunav Stari Banovci

FT

1 – 2

Borac Sakule

10/4/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci33%

×Draw24%

Borac Sakule43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav Stari BanovciExpected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.68

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.45

Borac Sakule

1.68

Borac Sakule creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

1.30

creates per match

1.40

1.96

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.30

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.96

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw

57%

Dunav Stari Banovci or Borac Sakule

76%

Draw or Borac Sakule

67%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

15%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

77%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

42%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

18%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

81%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

50%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

44%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

33%

level

24%

Borac Sakule scores more

43%

Borac Sakule at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff