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Borac Sakule vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
3 – 1
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
4/18/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Borac Sakule70%
×Draw18%
Dunav Stari Banovci12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
2.31
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.86

Borac Sakule creates 169% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
88%
Borac Sakule or Dunav Stari Banovci
82%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
30%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
46%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
90%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
67%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
40%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
58%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
21%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
85%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
70%
level
18%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
12%

Borac Sakule at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Sakule 3–1 Dunav Stari Banovci

Borac Sakule beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.