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Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
12/2/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dunav Ruse55%
×Draw26%
Spartak Pleven18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.48
Spartak Pleven
0.73

Dunav Ruse creates 103% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 80 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
82%
Dunav Ruse or Spartak Pleven
74%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
45%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
28%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
77%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
43%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
52%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
17%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
75%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
55%
level
26%
Spartak Pleven scores more
18%

Dunav Ruse at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dunav Ruse 0–1 Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven beat Dunav Ruse 1-0 in Second League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.