Dunav Ruse 1–3 Levski Sofia: Result & Stats

Dunav Ruse

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Levski Sofia

G. Valchev 30'

Ronaldo 56'

Ricardinho 45+2' (pen), 25'

11/22/2023

League #174 · Round of 32Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunav Ruse10%

×Draw18%

Levski Sofia72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

2.17

Dunav Ruse

0.64

Levski Sofia

2.17

Levski Sofia creates 239% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

0.67

Levski Sofia

2.00

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

2.33

Levski Sofia

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Levski Sofia →

0–06%

0–113%

0–214%

0–310%

0–46%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

28%

Dunav Ruse or Levski Sofia

82%

Draw or Levski Sofia

90%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

47%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

14%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

89%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

64%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

12%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 0.67 + Levski Sofia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Levski Sofia attack 2.00 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

10%

level

18%

Levski Sofia scores more

72%

Levski Sofia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Ricardinho

30'

G. Valchev

45+2'

RicardinhoPenalty

53'

I. Stefanov

56'

Ronaldo

69'

D. Minchev← S. Veshev

70'

D. Todorov← G. Ivanov

81'

I. Kolev← K. Gospodinov

81'

T. Kostov← R. Lolala

83'

K. Yovov← Ronaldo

89'

R. Velikov← M. Budinov

90+2'

D. Mihalev← H. Fadiga

Dunav

Levski

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kovachev

69'▲D. Minchev←▼S. Veshev

70'▲D. Todorov←▼G. Ivanov

81'▲I. Kolev←▼K. Gospodinov

81'▲T. Kostov←▼R. Lolala

89'▲R. Velikov←▼M. Budinov

Dunav Ruse substitutes

MinchevTodorovKolevKostovVelikov

Manager: N. Kostov

83'▲K. Yovov←▼Ronaldo

90+2'▲D. Mihalev←▼H. Fadiga

Levski Sofia substitutes

YovovMihalev