Dunav Ruse 1–4 Levski Sofia: Result & Stats

Dunav Ruse

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Levski Sofia

A. Ahmedov 47'

Paulinho 81'

D. Mariani 64' (pen), 15'

S. Ivanov 38'

7/15/2019

First League · Round 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dunav Ruse26%

×Draw27%

Levski Sofia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.38

Dunav Ruse

0.97

Levski Sofia

1.38

Levski Sofia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 136 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

1.39

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

1.00

Levski Sofia

1.38

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

1.39

Levski Sofia

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

54%

Dunav Ruse or Levski Sofia

73%

Draw or Levski Sofia

74%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

9%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

62%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

25%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

7%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

75%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

40%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

36%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Levski Sofia defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Levski Sofia attack 1.38 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

26%

level

27%

Levski Sofia scores more

46%

Levski Sofia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

38'

47'

52'

52'

54'

I. Dimitrov← S. Kostov

58'

A. Isaevski

64'

D. MarianiPenalty

69'

Sandro Semedo← S. Hristov

74'

Fernando Henrique← Samir Ayass

76'

F. Mazurek← D. Mariani

81'

Paulinho

82'

Martin Petkov← S. Ivanov

90'

A. Ahmedov

Dunav

Levski

1

20

22

4

19

70

8

⚽2

▼

Mariani

23

Thiam

29

▼

Kostov

7

⚽

Paulinho

99

⚽

▼

21

16

2

5

23

▼

Munin

18

Isaevski

6

▼

Ayass

11

Dimov

10

Selemenev

99

▼

Hristov

9

⚽

Ahmedov

Manager: P. Donev

52'▲M. Milchev←▼I. Munin

69'▲Sandro Semedo←▼S. Hristov

74'▲Fernando Henrique←▼Samir Ayass

Dunav Ruse substitutes

22Milchev17Semedo12Henrique4Varbanov7Lazarov33Ganev

Manager: P. Hubchev

54'▲I. Dimitrov←▼S. Kostov

76'▲F. Mazurek←▼D. Mariani

82'▲Martin Petkov←▼S. Ivanov

Levski Sofia substitutes

45Dimitrov10Mazurek79Petkov6Naydenov12Ivanov39Ivanov77Yurukov

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Dunav Ruse 4-1 in First League on July 15, 2019.

Goals: D. Mariani (15', 64' pen), S. Ivanov (38'), A. Ahmedov (47'), Paulinho (81').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Rousse.

Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia